Winter Forecast for Northern Species Excites Many Bird Watchers

By James Ed. Ducey

An annual report of the expected movement of typical northern species of birds is causing excitement among many bird watchers.

Due to a "very poor seed crop" in portions of Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba, and other related influences, several bird species are heading elsewhere to find food, according to the report prepared by Ron Pittaway, a field ornithologist with the Ontario Field Ornithologists. The theme for the present winter forecast is "finches going in three directions."

The report for this winter discusses the expected movement - irruptions - of the Pine Grosbeak, Purple Finch, crossbills, redpolls, Pine Siskin and Evening Grosbeak as they move about during the late autumn and winter months in search of a reliable source of food.

Occurrence of some of these birds is already being regularly reported in online bird forums for many locales in the United States.

Red-breasted Nuthatches are also being commonly being reported southward of Canada by bird watchers, and are being observed in places where they may not have been typically seen in previous winter seasons.

Sightings of these "expected" species - many at bird feeders - is thrilling to many people that watch wild birds, as indicated by the effusive remarks posted on numerous bird forums.

Pittaway's first winter finch forecast was prepared in 1999, when "spies" provided enough details to discuss just a few species.

For the next winter, a couple of short missives comprised the report, with only one contributor recognized. With his continued focus on this topic through the subsequent years, and a better understanding of the influences on winter bird distribution, the details given in the report have grown to include a discussion of Great Gray Owls, Northern Hawk Owls and Boreal Owls in the 2007-2008 report. Numerous people were recognized for their valuable contributions, including bird watchers, and staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. The forecast even went through a review process before being posted on the website of the Ontario Field Ornithologists.

In an email interview, Pittaway, of Minden Ontario, discussed his finch forecast, which is typically released in in September to the Ontbirds and Birdchat listservs and available on the Ontario Field Ornithologists website.

Why have you done these reports since 1999? What got you started?

"The internet stimulated annual winter finch forecasts. It's so immediate and far reaching. Also, birders reported finches and then said retroactively that 'this should be a good winter for this species.' Since finch movements and abundance are driven by seed crops formed well in advance of irruptions, I figured that a forecast based on seed crops would interest birders. Some were skeptical at first but now there is a much greater confidence in reliability of the forecasts. This year inquiries about the forecast began in June. There's a lot of interest in neighboring states (Ontario borders on eight states) and well beyond. The forecast is aimed at Ontario, but often applies to broader areas as in 2006-7 and this winter."

What do you find is the biggest difference from year to year?

"Every year differs to some degree because of the varying abundance and extent of seed supplies across North America. This year's theme was finches going in three directions: east, west, south. This year shows that many finches such as crossbills often don't only go north to south."

How do evaluators determine the difference in seed sources needed by the species you discuss?

"I ask contacts to rate seed crops for each major conifer species and white birch as bumper, excellent, very good, good, fair or poor. Most of my contacts are foresters, biologists, tree seed specialists, field naturalists and birders. Many of these contacts also report the finches present in their areas. I often follow-up with phone calls."

Do you think your forecasts have any role in bird management or conservation?

Not directly that I'm aware of. However, the educational value to resource planners and managers may have unforeseen benefits. Finches demonstrate the importance of healthy forests throughout North America. As a sidebar, wild bird stores that sell seeds always find forecasts informative and I get mixed reactions. They prefer years such as this when Evening Grosbeaks, Pine Grosbeaks, siskins and redpolls irrupt southward. Sales go up. Last year's bumper seed crop which held finches in the northern forests had seed stores hoping the forecast would be wrong.

What do you think of the response to your forecast?

"Most responses to the forecast are favorable. I've been lucky. Usually authors get feedback only when they are wrong. Last year a birder challenged me about how long it takes for white pine cones to mature. He said three years so I referred him to the scientific literature showing that it's a two-year pine. However, I don't mind critics such as the aforementioned person because I learn so much from others. Birders are welcome to use information from the forecast."

Would you think there are any climate changes that are playing a role in the changes noted by your reports?

"I suspect that climate change is affecting boreal finches. The number of forest fires is increasing. Unusual weather events, such as unseasonable freezes during pollination and flowering, and droughts retarding seed development in summer, are likely effects of climate change. Also, very warm weather in fall causes some conifers such as white pine and white spruce to release seeds early reducing supplies for finches during the winter."

Do forest conservation initiatives which protect habitats, have any role in winter distribution in your area?

"The widespread planting of pines and spruces in southern Ontario and elsewhere often attract finches in winter. Selective cutting of forests in central Ontario has greatly reduced the regeneration of white birch, which is important to redpolls in winter. Most white birches in central Ontario are over 60 years old. This short-lived tree needs full sunlight to start growing. Eastern hemlock is important to Type 3 Red Crossbills but is not regenerating in central Ontario. The causes are a large deer population eating the seedlings and probably increased drought linked to climate change."

What is you background that got you interested in doing this forecast?

"I grew up in a rural town in southern Quebec near Ottawa during the 1950s and 60s. Like most birders the nomadic habits of boreal finches interested me. I was also a tree watcher and the two interests go together well. At college and university, I majored in forestry and environmental studies. During the 1970s I was a park naturalist in Algonquin Provincial Park (Ontario) where my interest in winter finches increased. From 1981 to retirement in 2003, I worked for the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources at the Leslie M. Frost Natural Resources Centre in central Ontario with biologists, foresters, geologists and resource managers. The Frost Centre also did in-service training for natural resources and parks staff from across the province. At the Frost Centre and during travels across the province I made many contacts that I now draw upon for finch forests."

What enjoyment do you get out of doing the forecast?

"Nature's mysteries intrigue me. Learning from others also provides a lot of gratification. Mostly I'm pleased that birders look forward to the yearly forecasts. They're fun to do."

Would you like to say anything regarding the value of contributors and the information they provide?

"Former colleagues in the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources are among the best biologists and forest ecologists in the province. My good friend and top birder Ron Tozer of Algonquin Park and I have discussed winter finches for more than 35 years. We were co-editors of the journal Ontario Birds for 16 years. He reviews a draft of my annual finch forecasts."

Any other comments?

"In recent years other birders have started forecasting in other provinces and in New York, the New England States, Minnesota and elsewhere. I'm pleased about that. Perhaps it will develop into forecasts for larger geographical areas and eventually all of North America."

Winter Finch Forecast